This Brings Me To a 2050 Scenario

A harrowing scenario emerged in May 2019 from the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration in Australia, written by David Spratt, Research Director and Ian Dunlop, Club of Rome. Retired Admiral Chris Barrie, who introduces the work, quotes Professor Steffan:

“It’s not a technological or a scientific problem – it is a question of humanity’s socio-political values. We need a social tipping point that flips our thinking before we reach a tipping point in the climate system.”

The authors take a harder look at Climate Crisis than their scientific colleagues in the UN and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. They state emphatically that the existing climate science projections and policy making are too conservative. Instead they explore a 2050 scenario of extreme severity, and show that accelerating climate impacts pose very large negative consequences for humanity. In a succession of scenarios from 2020 – 2050, the authors lay out a disturbing vision of human life becoming extinct in a horrible manner.

They predict that between 2020 – 2030 there is abject failure to act on the evidence. Keeping global warming below a further 2 degrees centigrade is ignored and locks in at 3 degrees of global warming. The global heat wave in the summer of 2019 has already increased warming and the lock in of 3 degrees looms closer. From 2030 onwards carbon-cycle feedbacks are beyond predictions so that by 2050 the “hothouse Earth” scenario is realized. The interaction of carbon system feedbacks drive the Earth System Climate so that further warming becomes self-sustaining. The jet stream is destabilized, ecosystems collapse and there is nowhere for relocating billions of people. The sheer scale of predicted destruction is beyond any capacity to model. Outright chaos is all that remains due to catastrophic climate emergencies from 2020 – 2050.

Their bottom line is that a zero-emissions industrial system must be built immediately. And this requires a global use of resources akin to a wartime level of response – something like the Marshall Plan after World War 11 or even a global Green New Deal. Both options are not enough, as they ignite severe political partisanship around the world. Climate science has shown that current projections will likely bring about a further 3 degrees Celsius – a catastrophic explosion across the globe. Without radical change, Spratt and Dunlop’s scenario is a glimpse of outright chaos creating the end of human civilization and modern society. Naomi Klein argues in her 2019 book – “On Fire” – that something like a Green New Deal is a radical change that could transform our economies to meet the Paris Accord protocols.

To conclude – we have a decade to change the present predictions.


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